Peruvian citizens can now weigh in on their country's proposed climate action commitment for the post 2020 period. Last week the government launched a public consultation process allowing the public to provide input to the country's draft Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC). Under the draft plan, Peru would reduce its greenhouse gas emission by 31% by 2030 through a series of 58 actions across economic sectors. The draft INDC also details objectives and indicators for adapting to climate change. With this announcement Peru joined Mexico (which submitted its INDC in March) and Chile (which is finalizing its own INDC process) in showing that countries in Latin America are stepping up to be part of the climate solution. After the consultation process wraps up and the input received is incorporated, Peru will formally present its INDC in late August.
The proposed mitigation INDC is one of four emission reduction scenarios Peru evaluated with emission cuts that ranged between 4% and 42%.** All four scenarios envisioned emission reductions as compared to a business as usual baseline under which Peru is projected to emit 216 MTCO2e by 2020; 243 MTCO2e by 2025 and 269 MTCO2e by 2030. The scenario the government put forth for consultation entails 58 lines of action in the energy, transportation, industrial, agriculture, waste and forestry sectors. Together these actions would reduce Peru's greenhouse gas emission by 82.2 million tons of CO2e by 2030. By far the most reductions are planned for the forestry sector which would account for approximately 71% of all anticipated reductions. With so much of Peru's climate action plan riding on reducing emissions from forestry - the source of roughly 45% of the country's total emissions -, it will be critical for Peru not to backslide on its existing obligations to protect its forests.
Under the adaptation section of the INDC, Peru proposes to:
- Reduce by 50% the number of people affected by climate-change related natural phenomena (as compared to a 2008 baseline of 1,452,938 persons).
- Reduce by 25% the number of people living in conditions of vulnerability to climate disruptions (46% of Peru's territory is considered to be a Highly or Very Highly Vulnerable).
- Reduce by 50% the GDP losses linked to the El Niño phenomenon (as compared to the 1997-1998 loss of 6.2% of GDP).
The public consultation process will run through July 17th and in the coming days citizens and interested parties will be able to provide input online on the document. The consultation plan also includes a series of working sessions planned with the private sector, NGOs, indigenous communities, academia, youth and other stakeholders. Some observers are noting that the consultation process may be an opportunity for citizens to call for a "twin-track" final submission that includes a non-conditional mitigation commitment of 31% and conditional submission that is more ambitious - similar to Mexico's dual submission.
Significantly, the government is also inviting stakeholders to register their own initiatives to help further increase the ambition of mitigation and adaptation efforts. Creating this space for additional contributions beyond the efforts of the national government could help catalyze further action from citizens, corporations, local governments and other institutions in Peru. And, as NRDC's Brendan Guy writes, "the transformative power of the [climate action] groundswell is becoming increasingly clear."
**The four scenarios analyzed were:
Scenario 1 - Twenty-one mitigation projects that reduce emission by 4%, or 9.5 MTCO2e
Scenario 2 - Forty-four mitigation projects that reduce emissions by 14%, or 37.8 MTCO2e
Scenario 3 - Fifty-eight mitigation projects that reduce emissions by 31%, or 82.2 MTCO2e
Scenario 4 - Seventy-six mitigation projects that reduce emissions by 42%, or 111.8 MTCO2e