Florida is already feeling the early effects of global warming, with more severe impacts yet to come. That's the conclusion of an October 2001 scientific study published by NRDC in conjunction with research scientists at Florida universities. The study finds that the far-reaching effects of global warming will transform Florida's climate, coastline and treasured natural areas in ways that will profoundly affect the state's economy and agriculture, as well as the health of its people. In short, global warming has the potential to affect everything that defines Florida today, and to alter the lives of many Floridians.

In fact, scientists have already observed changes in Florida consistent with the early effects of global warming: retreating and eroding shorelines, dying coral reefs, saltwater intrusion into inland freshwater aquifers, an upswing in forest fires, and warmer air and sea-surface temperatures.

NRDC's study, "Feeling the Heat in Florida: Global Warming on the Local Level," which synthesizes the results of a number of international, national, and local studies, is designed as a tool for Florida's leaders, providing specific, localized projections that will inform important decisions to come.

Florida Warming: A Global Problem Hits Home

Global warming, an increase in the earth's average temperature caused by a build up of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere, is often regarded as an abstract threat. But "Feeling the Heat" details global warming's real-world effect on life in Florida, moving the climate-change discussion from the abstract to the specific.

Among the threats global warming poses for Florida's people and resources:

• As glaciers melt and warming waters expand, sea levels will rise anywhere from eight inches to two-and-a-half feet over the next century. In Florida, seawater will advance inland as much as 400 feet in low-lying areas, flooding shoreline homes and hotels, limiting future development, and eroding the state's beloved beaches.



• As salt water encroaches inland, freshwater supplies feeding Florida's cities, agriculture, and tourist centers will be at risk of saltwater contamination.



• Saltwater encroachment will also likely inundate coastal wetlands, gravely threatening the lower Everglades and its wildlife.



• Tourism will likely suffer. Sea level rise, climbing temperatures, and alterations in rainfall will combine to damage beaches, the Everglades, coral reefs and other unique ecosystems that make Florida such an appealing tourist destination.



• Global warming will pose specific health threats to Florida's citizens, likely increasing the incidence of heat-related illness, exacerbating poor air quality, and perhaps even making it easier for infectious diseases to spread. Florida's seniors will be particularly susceptible to these effects.



• The impact of global warming on agriculture may not be felt at first; indeed, it is possible that climate and water conditions will help some commercial crops in the short run. But it's likely that climate changes will lead to lower yields of such important cash crops as citrus, sugarcane and tomatoes.



• Forest wildfires are very likely to be more common, and do more damage -- the result of higher temperatures and more intense droughts -- although the magnitude of this effect will depend on overall changes in rainfall. Also, global warming may increase the threat to forests from invasive species and pests.

On a positive note, the study found that one commonly perceived global warming threat has likely been overstated. Though preliminary research raised concerns that warmer ocean temperatures would lead to more frequent hurricanes, scientists now discount this theory. Nevertheless, global warming may increase hurricanes' maximum intensity, which will serve to exacerbate a natural cyclical trend toward more severe storms -- a trend likely to persist for the next 25 to 40 years.

Time for Action

NRDC's study highlights the local consequences of this global problem. Local solutions are also at hand, and Florida's leaders must act to put them in place. Recognizing the key role of state governments in cutting carbon dioxide pollution from power plants and automobiles, which is the main cause of global warming, 25 states and Puerto Rico have adopted or begun work on "climate action plans." These plans identify state-level strategies for reducing global warming pollution, which range from converting official vehicle fleets to cleaner fuels, to raising the amount of solar and other renewable energy entering the state's power grid to backing programs that offer lower mortgage rates for energy-efficient homes.

In addition to combating global warming, state action plans also prepare for its effects. In Florida, such a plan should include decisions about building sea walls, protecting freshwater aquifers from saltwater invasion, and adopting measures to save important habitats. Ten counties, accounting for more than half of Florida's population, have passed resolutions calling on the governor and state legislature to develop a climate plan, but so far they have failed to act.

Florida's leaders should not delay any longer. By acting sooner rather than later to reduce global warming pollution, Florida can substantially reduce the severity of the threat it faces. But the opposite is true as well: delaying will only make the inevitable more painful and more expensive. Of course, Florida and other state governments alone cannot reverse global warming. To protect the Sunshine State, as well as all the others, Congress and the federal government must also act quickly to clean up power plants and automobiles.

Based on FEELING THE HEAT IN FLORIDA: Global Warming on the Local Level, an October 2001 report by the Florida Climate Alliance and the Natural Resources Defense Council.

Related NRDC Pages
How Global Warming Will Affect Floridians
Map: A Snapshot of Global Warming's Threat to Florida

last revised 10.23.01