Australian Electric Vehicle Market Study

The CEFC and ARENA commissioned energy specialist Energeia to assess Australia’s electric vehicle (EV) market as well as to examine measures to accelerate the uptake of EVs and the associated requirements for vehicle charging infrastructure.

Energeia modeled three scenarios: 

1. No intervention, with EV uptake driven entirely by the economics of imported EVs
2. Moderate intervention, showing the impact of a range of potential measures to lower purchase, registration and toll costs, alongside access to transit lanes and new public-access charging infrastructure
3. Accelerated intervention, with these measures applied more quickly as more models become available. 

Under the moderate intervention scenario, EVs would reach 100 percent of new car sales in 2040, when more than half of all vehicles on Australian roads would be electric. This represents almost 1.9 million new EV sales a year. Energeia found that Australia has very low EV penetration compared with other advanced economies. Only 0.1 percent of new car sales in Australia are EVs, behind the United States at 0.9 percent, the United Kingdom at 1.4 percent, and well behind global leaders such as California at 3 percent, the Netherlands at 6.4 percent, and Norway at 29 percent. 

Energeia considered the impact of so-called range anxiety, where drivers are concerned they will run out of power and perceived long recharge times. It reported that more than 99 percent of Australian car trips are under 50 kilometers, so a round trip is already well within the range of current EV models. 

By 2024, EVs owners could expect to charge their 100 kWh battery at a public access fast-charging network in about five minutes or less, at a cost of just $11. While the same charge at a dedicated charger at home or work would take four hours, the estimated cost of $17–$19 was substantially better than fuel costs.