Winter Weather and Electricity Reliability

An Arctic blast across much of the United States prompted the North American Electric Reliability Corporation to issue a public warning to the electricity industry to prepare for freezing temperatures, harsh winds, and snow and sleet over the next two weeks. The cold has “the potential to create significant challenges,” NERC warned.

So far, while tens of thousands of customers have lost power in states from Virginia to Missouri, the electricity system as a whole has performed better than in past winter storms, but a prolonged “polar vortex” could pose new challenges. 

Here are two pieces of crucial background:

This extreme cold is another example of challenges to the grid from extreme weather influenced by climate change

Within the last year, Hurricane Helene’s torrential rainfall plunged millions of Duke’s customers in North Carolina into darkness. And then just days later, Hurricane Milton slammed into Florida, cutting power to three million more.

Power outages caused by “major events” like hurricanes and ice storms are up significantly since 2017, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. This includes the tragic ice storm that hit Texas in February 2021 and the cold weather in late 2022 that put PJM, the nation’s largest grid, on the verge of catastrophe. To ensure the nation’s power system is reliable, we need to address the climate crisis. 

Gas-fueled power plants are especially vulnerable during cold snaps

No one power source is entirely reliable, but gas comes with specific vulnerabilities, as NERC notes in its statement: “NERC is especially concerned about natural gas supply given the significant amount of production in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast.”

During winter storm Uri in Texas, gas plants made up the largest share of plant failures by a wide margin—more than double that of the next largest, according to a joint NERC/FERC analysis. And failures at gas plants in PJM during the December 2022 winter blast caused the power supply to nearly fall short then too. 

A report last year from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) warns that overreliance on fossil fuel energy is a “risky” approach. The report endorses a “portfolio approach” of low-carbon options, which also includes storage and grid-enhancing technologies.

While fossil fuel interests may try to blame renewable energy for any problems, the fact is that grid operators, industry regulators, states, and utilities need to step up and build a strong and nimble grid system that can handle increases in extreme weather with the power sources that are now the most economical—wind, solar, asnd battery storage—combined with an expanded electricity transmission grid. 

“Relying solely on additional fossil fuel resources as the default option to meet reliability needs is risky,” the DOE report concluded. “Reliability is a system attribute—no individual resource is perfectly reliable.” 

One way to have a more resilient system is to have a larger system. After all, while it may be cold and snowy in Chicago, the sun may be shining in New Mexico, fueling solar panels that can send power to the Midwest. That’s why grid operators need to move quickly to develop interregional transmission lines necessary to share power across the country.

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